As world leaders head for Brazil to focus on climate change, it is time for realism, pragmatism – and maybe even a little optimism, in spite of it all.
It’s that time of year again. The annual UN climate extravaganza comes around as regularly as Christmas. We’re coming towards the turn of the year. It`s the time when you keep up certain traditions – and make resolutions for doing things better.
This is a big anniversary COP – ten years since the landmark Paris Agreement was signed, pledging us all to keep global warming below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. So far, we haven’t done too well on that.
Some people look around them and get depressed – some get energised, looking for new momentum. As world leaders (but which ones and who’s missing?) get ready to head to Brazil, and Belém, in the heart of the Amazon rainforest, for a summit ahead of the UN negotiations, I have mixed feelings.
Brazil hosts Amazon COP
Let’s start with the conference host Brazil, an influential player. In 2024, it presided over the G20. It is currently President of the BRICS group, which has become a major political force in the last two decades, seeking to create a counterweight to Western influence in global institutions.
Brazil’s hosting of COP30 marks 33 years since the Rio Earth Summit, where countries first signed the United Nations treaty committing to tackling climate change.
(UN visit to Belém earlier this year. Photo: Isabela Castilho/Cop30 Amazônia)
The meeting is being held in Belém, in the Amazon rainforest. The Amazon is a meaningful symbol, playing a key role in shaping our climate. The forest is under threat from logging and burning on the ground and – like the rest of the planet – from greenhhouse-gas-induced warming from above and around. Yet just two weeks before the COP, President Lula’s government announced plans for new oil drilling off the mouth of the Amazon, an area holding one of the world’s richest marine ecosystems.
Environmental groups described the announcement as an act of sabotage against the COP.
“Beyond ending deforestation, degradation, and fires in the Amazon, it’s now urgent to reduce all fossil fuel emissions,” said Carlos Nobre, co-chair of the Scientific Panel for the Amazon, speaking to the Brazilian business newspaper Valor Economico.
Scientists for Future, here in Bonn, Germany, call for an end to fossil fuels. (Photo: I.Quaile)
Ingmar Rentzhog, the CEO and founder of We Don’t Have Time writes:
“By approving drilling now, Brazil effectively locked in new oil projects before any COP30 decision could call for a fossil fuel phase-out. The message: domestic oil policy is off-limits.”
And there is something incongruent about bringing thousands of people to a fragile region you really want to protect. Trees were cut down for road access. Belém lacks affordable accommodation, making it virtually impossible for a lot of the poorer countries in the front line of climate-related damage to attend.
We see the dilemma of our times in a microcosm. We want development, high living standards, food, water, energy security, but that often comes at the cost of our natural environment, our planet’s limited resources.
Multinational cooperation to inspire everyday action at home
Karen Silverwood-Cope is Climate Director at World Resources Institute (WRI) Brazil and Coordinator of the Public Policy Group at Rede Clima.
“Since the first term of Lula’s administration, climate has always been treated as a key pillar of Brazil’s foreign policy with a strong belief that Brazil can and should play a leading role in global climate action,” she told journalists in an online pre-COP30 briefing. In her view, the government is using the international event to help sustain the political momentum on climate at home in Brazil, with an election on the horizon next year. She suggests that holding a multilateral climate-related event could be a way to “bring climate as a priority to the world and bring climate change as a key issue to people’s daily lives,” linking the local and the international levels and presumably giving people the feeling that they are not alone, that the whole world is in this with them. That is something all our governments should be looking at, given the current backlash against climate measures even in Germany and other EU countries, traditionally considered climate champions.
Silverwood-Cope feels the host country has been working to make sure the conference includes the often neglected social dimensions of climate justice, including employment, and trade and other important measures for developing countries. She expects that to be reflected in the COP30 outcomes.
The climate policy expert also predicts that the adaptation agenda will for the first time be a priority in the negotiations – even more than the mitigation agenda.
Amazon to Arctic – climate impacts now
Given the increasing intensity of extreme weather events around the globe, it is inevitable that adapting to our changing climate has to take centre stage. The intensity with which Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica and the destructive typhoon that devastated villages in Alaska, are just two examples of what lies ahead.
The affected region of Alaska is on the forefront of climate change, NPR reports: “Permafrost — or ground that is frozen year-round — underpins many of these villages and is thawing, leading to rapid erosion and instability. The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium says nearly 150 communities in Alaska — many in the Y-K (Yukon-Kuskokwim) Delta — will need to relocate fully or partially in the coming years because of permafrost thaw, land subsidence, erosion, or some other combination of climate-driven factors.”
Nasa data published in June revealed a dramatic and unforeseen rise in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years. The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe, with last year’s figures reaching twice that of the 2003-2020 average.
The Arctic experienced a record-breaking heatwave this year, which experts say was made 3°C hotter because of climate change.
Arctic Norway reached temperatures over 30°C this summer. (Pic: Dana Hübbel)
Melting ice, rising seas
“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” warns Dr Friederike Otto, Associate Professor in Climate Science at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London. One of the pioneers of climate attribution, she told Euronews:
“The unusual heat would have accelerated ice melt and contributed to sea level rise, which is threatening the survival of communities on small islands, like Vanuatu, Kiribati and Tuvalu, as well as Indigenous peoples such as the Inuit.”
A study published in October 2025 found that “Increasing heat is super-charging Arctic climate and weather extremes”. By evaluating historical climate records, observational and projection data, the international team of researchers found a “pushing and triggering” mechanism that has driven the Arctic climate system to a “new state”, which, they conclude, will likely see consistently increased frequency and intensity of extreme events across all system components—the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere—this century.
According to the researchers’ analysis, since the year 2000, the probability of atmospheric heat waves has increased by 20%; Atlantic Ocean layer warm events have increased by 76%; sea ice loss events have increased by 83%; and Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent has increased by 68%.
“Prior to the 21st century, these events were rare,” says lead author Xiangdong Zhang, research professor at North Carolina State University and senior scientist at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies. “But with continued warming they will become the new norm”.
Ice from the mighty ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica will determine the fate of low-lying communities around the globe. (Phot: I.Quaile)
Greenhouse gases still soaring
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin to provide authoritative scientific information for the UN Climate Change conference. It confirms that carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere soared by a record amount to new highs in 2024, “committing the planet to more long-term temperature increase”, which will mean more extreme weather.
The experts find: “continued emissions of CO2 from human activities and an upsurge from wildfires were responsible, as well as reduced CO2 absorption by “sinks” such as land ecosystems and the ocean – in what threatens to be a vicious climate cycle.”
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett warned:
“The heat trapped by CO2 and other greenhouse gases is turbo-charging our climate and leading to more extreme weather. Reducing emissions is therefore essential not just for our climate but also for our economic security and community well-being.”
Concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide – the second and third most important long-lived greenhouse gases related to human activities – have also risen to record levels.
We have already hit that 1.5°C
UN Secretary-General António Guterres himself warned that humanity has failed to limit global heating to 1.5C and must change course immediately. In his only interview before the COP, given to the Guardian and Indigenous journalist Waja Xipai, he acknowledged it is now “inevitable” that humanity will overshoot the target in the Paris climate agreement, with “devastating consequences” for the world.
Protesters in Germany urge politicians to keep climate warming to a maximum 1.5°C. (Photo: I.Quaile)
He urged the leaders who will gather in Belém to realise that the longer they delay cutting emissions, the greater the danger of passing catastrophic “tipping points” in the Amazon, the Arctic and the oceans.
The latest annual State of the Climate Report, published on October 29th in BioScience find that “22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are at record levels, with many of them continuing to trend sharply in the wrong direction.”
The report was prepared by an international coalition led by Oregon State University scientists and including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The authors note that 2024 was the hottest year on record and likely the hottest in at least the last 125,000 years.
“The last few years have seen vital signs breaking their records by extraordinary margins, like surface temperature, ocean heat content, sea ice loss and fire-related tree cover loss,” says PIK Director Johan Rockström, a co-author of the report. “The accelerating climate crisis presents a range of deeply interconnected risks to the planet’s essential operating systems – from critical tipping elements such as the ocean current system AMOC, to the integrity of Earth’s living biosphere, to the stability of global water resources.”
“Climate mitigation strategies are available, cost-effective and urgently needed, and we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly,” said William Ripple, professor at Oregon State University and co-lead author. “But the window is closing. Without effective strategies, we will rapidly encounter escalating risks that threaten to overwhelm systems of peace, governance, and public and ecosystem health.”
The US factor
President Trump`s revival of support for fossil fuels and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the UN climate process has caused a lot of concern – and despair in some quarters – given the extent of the USA’s greenhouse gas emissions. But although the administration is opting out, there will be plenty of US sub-national actors in Belém to play their part. And optimists point out that countries have not been lining up to follow Trump’s lead and leave. Amongst them is Louis Leonard, the inaugural Dean of Clark University’s New School of Climate, Environment and Society. (As he says himself, it’s a bold time to be launching a new school around these issues, but more power to his elbow and the organisation’s “holistic and human-centered approach”.)
Leonard is a veteran COP participant, was involved in the Paris Agreement and led the “alternative” US delegation to COP23 in 2027, when the US pulled out of the Agreement for the first time. Addressing journalists at an online briefing, he stressed:
“We are still in a coalition of nearly 4000 US companies, subnational state governors, mayors and universities” in favour of climate action.
Another COP – another chance to catch the ball (Photo, I.Quaile, Bonn)
COP30, he says is “a critical juncture for global climate action today”:
“It’s clear that something other than the typical policy negotiations are going to be needed to drive forward the ambition that we need” says Leonard. What’s required is a “strong pivot from commitments to implementation, from diplomacy to action through new kinds of collaboration – from announcements to real world delivery”.
He believes the Brazilian Presidency is focused on “that kind of action agenda.”
For Leonard, the US is the exception to what he sees as a trend towards the “real resiliency of global climate diplomacy.” He says “it doesn’t seem like US moves have affected any sort of global momentum towards things like the UN General Assembly or momentum at the Pre-COP.”
I hope he will turn out to be right.
“I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Brazilian government is asserting framing of this COP around a moment of global cooperation and shared global responsibility. It puts in stark contrast the vision that we’re seeing from the United States right now. The countries of the world seem to be lining up around this vision of global cooperation and maintaining the structures and momentum around that rather than looking for an opportunity to jump ship,” says Leonard.
Time to get back on track
There can be no doubt that the world is a long way from achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and that we have no choice but to adapt to a changing climate while we try to get back on track.
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be submitted to the UN ahead of the COP have been incomplete and inadequate. We are still heading for a temperature rise of 2.3 to 2.7°C by the end of the century.
The State of Climate Action 2025 published ahead of COP30 by the World Resources Institute (WRI) aims to provide a comprehensive roadmap for closing the global gap in climate action to help keep the Paris Agreement goal within reach. It also assesses collective efforts to combat the climate crisis across key sectors.
The results are sobering – but still point pathways forward. The ten years from the adoption of the Paris Agreement have seen the transition to net-zero emissions take off, but there is still a long way to go, the experts find. Across every single sector, climate action has failed to materialize at the pace and scale required to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. None of the 45 indicators assessed are on track to reach their 1.5°C-aligned targets by the end of this decade.Recent progress toward 1.5°C-aligned targets has largely failed to materialize at the required pace and scale.
But the assessment also highlights where action must accelerate this decade to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scale up carbon removal and increase climate finance.
We do have the means
The authors of the other State of the Climate report also have concrete proposals to take us forward – in spite of their harrowing conclusions about the state of the planet’s vital signs.
We can get back on track if we keep expanding renewables:
“A rapid phaseout of fossil fuels would yield one of the largest contributions to climate mitigation”, the team finds. They also advise protecting and restoring ecosystems such as forests, wetlands, mangroves and peatlands; reducing food loss and waste, which currently accounts for roughly 8 to 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and shifting toward more plant-rich diets.
These strategies also promote human health and food security, so would be a “win-win”.
The experts stress that every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters for human and ecological well-being. Small reductions in temperature rise can significantly reduce the risk from extreme weather, biodiversity loss, food and water insecurity as well as risks posed from crossing major tipping points. The authors emphasise that delaying action will lock in higher costs and more severe impacts, while swift, coordinated measures can yield immediate benefits for communities and ecosystems worldwide.
In short: we are not on the pathway to 1.5°C. Overshoot is inevitable. But there are measures we can take to double back and get the world back on track.
I read an inspiring commentary by Gordon Brown in the Guardian the other day: “World leaders, remember that future generations will judge you. At Cop30, you can define how”.
The former British premier and economic expert appeals to the participants of the summit: “Those leaders who understand the urgency should seize the opportunity afforded by Brazil hosting Cop30 this month to build a coalition of committed countries determined to turn back the climate deniers.”
He says they should lay the ground for a far more ambitious Belém declaration than the one now on the table. Countries should reaffirm the goals of the Paris Agreement, speed up the implementation of their climate plans and expand carbon pricing and carbon markets. They should throw their weight behind achieving the funding necessary to help the global south. Brown calls on countries to pledge support for Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which will halt tropical deforestation while providing employment for Indigenous populations.
China and India need to implement the Global Methane Pledge, to slash emissions of a greenhouse gas that is still emitted in huge quantities from oil and gas plants, landfill and agriculture.
Brown wants COP30 to focus also on reducing the “human costs” of climate inaction – not just the loss of livelihoods and the risks to health but, he stresses, “the hardship of an estimated 40 million children who cannot enjoy an education because droughts, floods or storms have closed their schools.”
Yes, we have a choice
If leaders committed to all this, Brown concludes, “ It would demonstrate that they are committed not only to getting the world back on track, but to affirming, as we commemorate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations, that multilateral rules-based cooperation is still possible. It would prove that prosperity, to be sustained, has to be shared. This month, when both Cop30 and the G20 convene, is the time to remind leaders that future generations will judge them. They will ask whether or not, at this critical moment, when the world faced a choice between progress and retreat, they rose to the challenge of our times and gave people hope.”
Brown’s ideas left me with a definite feeling of hope. I lost any belief I might have had that a COP would bring a major breakthrough some time ago. But it is one necessary element of a complex process. It brings key players together and can be a platform where we galvanize action. I’m not sure if we can turn things around completely. But we can come to terms with reality, take steps to adapt, make life safe and worth living for everybody. We have to protect the vulnerable now and at the same time use the innovations and technologies we are rapidly developing to transform our energy system and lifestyles. We can bring warming down. We can not only keep the planet inhabitable – but make it a good place to live for coming generations.
Comment
Reply